Issue Focus

​(Purpose) Compared to the social importance of the subscription system, there are not many studies based on empirical analysis. This study aims to understand the operation status of the special supply subscription system based on empirical data and seek a long-term direction for system efficiency based on this.

​- From January 2020 to June 2024, 1,853 complexes of "Subscription Home" and 900,000 households' subscription data were analyzed.

​49.0% of the (volume) total sales are initially distributed as special supply, but since there are no subscribers, there are many supplies that are converted to general supply, so the special supply to actual consumers is 28.5% of the total sales.

​- 12.9% of the special supply equilibrium had no subscribers, so the total amount allocated was converted to general supply.

​- 73.7% of the special supply is distributed to a broad range of low birth responses (multi-child, newly married couple, multi-child, first-time in life, newborn).

​Even within the (type and region) special supply, the demand difference by type and region is large, and the gap between the subscription competition rate between the special supply and the general supply is large even in the same equilibrium.

​- Half of the special supply is analyzed to have no subscribers. In particular, the special supply of multi-child (73.0%), institutional recommendation (62.5%), and elderly parent support (61.6%) exceeded 60%, failing to find subscribers.

​- Nevertheless, the competition rate for special supply subscriptions in Seoul and Sejong exceeds double digits, which is interpreted as a result of the expectation of asset allocation due to the application of the sale price ceiling.

​- For the same equilibrium, the difference between the subscription competition rate between the special supply and the general supply is large. Only 19.2% of the special supply equilibrium competes, but 76.7% of the general supply is in competition.

​(Direction) As demand deviations by region and product continue to expand, it may hinder the operational efficiency of subscription, a new housing sales system, and needs improvement.

​- Under-supplied quantities are converted to general supply, and so far, the pre-sale market has formed an excess demand market regardless of region and type, which does not cause serious problems in the housing market. However, as the market situation is changing rapidly, it is time for institutional efficiency.

​(Short-term) It is necessary to close the gap between special supply distribution and actual supply, and to readjust the volume by type and region.

​- It is necessary to reset the policy target volume by checking the demand by public, private, regional (whether or not the sale price cap is applied) and type. It is urgent to consider readjustment between the number of first-time and newly married couples and the number of multi-child and institutional recommendations.

​It is necessary to review the policy effectiveness of special supply, such as responding to low birth rates, introducing the concept of follow-up management after the sale, and expanding private sector autonomy.

​- The special supply has been around for 50 years since 1978, but the effectiveness has not been verified. It is necessary to verify the effectiveness of the policy by observing the behavior of the special supply recipient, such as the period of residence, whether the child was born, and the selling price.

​- First Homes in the UK regulates the sale price of the concession price and manages it after sale. For the sale of the sale price ceiling system in the area, we will also need to find a follow-up management plan to consider ways to increase the effectiveness of the asset allocation policy and to maintain the inventory of affordable housing.

​- The subscription system is intertwined with various systems such as subscription bankbooks, national housing bonds, and housing city funds, so it is necessary to establish a long-term roadmap to improve the home sales system.​